The Course of World War III
The world sits upon the precipice of World War III. The programs are printed and the players have been identified. The coming global conflict is divided into two camps, the BRIC nations and the USA and her allies and both sides are preparing to go toe-to-toe. The following is a breakdown of the relative strengths of each side and a discussion about the likely course of events given the relative military strengths of each side.
Comparative Conventional Military Strength Between the BRIC NATIONS AND USA ALLIES
The United States and her allies have a decided advantage of quick strike, long range battlefield capabilities because of superior aircraft and carrier strike capabilities. The BRIC nations have an advantage with manpower, rocket propelled weapons and tanks. The USA and her allies cannot win a sustained battlefield campaign because of the attrition factor. The Chinese have demonstrated the ability to negate the United States Navy’s technological advantage through the use of killer satellites.
Nuclear submarines are often looked at as the great equalizer. No matter who is winning on the ground, in the air and on the surface of the oceans, the submarine force has the capability to reign down unimaginable destruction upon their enemy. In the case of submarines, the USA and her allies are matched by their BRIC counterparts. Most subs carry eight nuclear missiles, each capable of destroying a major city. The USA presumably has superior evasive techniques and therefore, would survive sub-killer strategies with greater frequency that their BRIC adversaries.
For the United States and her allies to win a conventional war, a quick strike, surprise engagement is critical to the success of these forces. The BRICS would have an advantage in a longer prolonged conflict.This is particularly true when one considers that if time permitted, the Chinese have bragged that they could put 100 million men on a battlefield. Following the teachings of Sun Tsu in the famous, The Art of War, it is critical that the BRIC nations be brought to the battlefield of choice by the USA for a quick and decisive engagement. The engagement is likely to be naval and involve aircraft. This plays to the advantage to the USA, whose superior long range strike capability is enhanced by their superior aircraft carriers.The USA forces would likely engage in a distracting land engagement first to hold the maximum number of forces. The land strike, a first strike, will be directed at Syria. Given the present crisis, the Russians would have to decide on choosing between protecting its eastern border with the NATO forces or launching an offensive directed at protecting Syria. The Russians will choose self-defense. The timing of the American invasion of Syria will take place when a sufficient number of American naval vessels are present in the Black Sea to checkmate the Russia military build up in Crimea which would serve as a staging area for military action in Syria. At the end of the day, once the American navy has moved into position off of the Baltic states, Russia will be powerless to prevent an US takeover of Syria.
Once the US occupies Syria, Russia will be powerless to intervene on behalf of America’s next target, Iran because the US medium range missile batteries will prevent the Russian army from moving south into the region. With Russia out of the way, Iran will capitulate and stop selling oil for gold to the BRIC nations and the Petrodollar will be preserved. Iran will agree to the control of their oil fields by the US to avoid an invasion. They will capitulate because nobody will come to their rescue.
What about India and China? Won’t they move to protect Iran and thus, erode the Petrodollar? Not exactly, as China and India will have their hands full. The naval strike of I speak of will be directed at China. Before the commencement of hostilities, China will be given a short time to stand down or face destruction by the US submarines and the long range capabilities of US carriers. It is only necessary to target China’s major cities to force capitulation. This strategy would free the disenchanted Chinese, living in the rebellious outlying provinces to launch a revolution against Beijing. It is also rumored that the US does have space based nuclear weapons. If this is the case, this conflict could be over in the early morning hours of the first day. The Chinese submarine force could be capable of taking out several US cities, however, their submarines alone will not change the outcome. India will be held in check by Pakistan and her nuclear weapons. Subsequently, India will never enter the fight. US forces in Afghanistan could block a Russian invasion of Pakistan from the north. It is clear that the USA and her allies will decisively defeat the BRIC nations in a conventional war, so long as it is a short conflict.
However, there is one game-changing strategy that the BRICS could employ. If the BRIC nations were to simultaneously launch a series of high altitude ICBM’s over every theater of potential war, the high altitude nuclear blast could create an EMP attack on a global scale. Such an action would negate the technological advantage of the US military and reduce the conflict to brutal savagery which would be dominated by global famine. Certainly the super elite would experience population reduction on an unprecedented scale.This action would ultimately produce a military stalemate and the war would disintegrate into one brute force versus another for a very long time. The popular TV show, Revolution, comes to mind.
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BRIC Nations Conventional Military Strength
Most Likely to Fight
Men Planes Tanks Carriers Subs Rockets
Russia 766,000 3,082 1,550 1 62 3,781
China 2,825,000 2,788 9,150 1 69 1,770
India 1,325,000 1,785 3,569 2 17 292
Total 4,916, 000 7,655 14,269 4 148 5,843
(NOTE: The forces of North Korea would be absorbed by China
Ukraine and Belarus have a combined military strength of 200,000 men)
USA Allied Nations Conventional Military Strength
Men Planes Tanks Carriers Subs RocketsUSA 1,430,000 13,685 8,325 10 72 1,330
UK 205,330 900 400 1 11 60
FR 230,000 1,200 420 1 10 60
GRM 180,000 710 410 0 4 250
TURK 410,500 990 3,660 0 14 650
S KOR 640,000 1,400 2,350 0 14 250
JAP 250,000 1,600 770 1 16 100
TOT 3,345,830 20,475 8,325 13 141 2,700
Source: Global Fire Power
NUCLEAR WEAPONS: BRIC NATIONS VS USA & ALLIES
The nuclear arsenals of the BRICS vs. the USA and her allies are equivalent on paper. However, the reliability factor clearly favors the USA. The topic is almost a moot point. If either side resorts to the use of nuclear weapons on anything more than a battlefield scale with tactical nuclear weapons, this would render the conflict meaningless as the planet would be a very undesirable place to inhabit. The following data demonstrates the ultimate futility of employing nuclear weapons on a regional and intercontinental basis.
Country
Warheads active/total
Date of first test
AFFILIATION
United States
2,150 / 7,70016 July 1945 (“Trinity“) NATO
Russia
1,800 / 8,50029 August 1949 (“RDS-1“) NATO
United Kingdom
160 / 2253 October 1952 (“Hurricane“) NATO
France
290 / 30013 February 1960 (“Gerboise Bleue“) NATO
China
n.a. / 25016 October 1964 (“596“) BRIC
India
n.a. / 90–11018 May 1974 (“Smiling Buddha“) BRIC
Pakistan
n.a. / 100–12028 May 1998 (“Chagai-I“) UNDETERMINED
North Korea
n.a. / <10 p="">9 October 2006 BRIC (CHINA)
Undeclared nuclear powers
10>
Israel
n.a. / 60-200Unknown (possibly 22 September 1979) INDEPENDENT
Source: Federation of American Scientists: Status of World Nuclear Forces”. Fas.org. Early 2013.
U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe
Country Air base Custodian Warheads
Belgium Kleine Brogel 52nd Fighter Wing 10~20
Germany Büchel 52nd Fighter Wing 10~20
Italy Ghedi Torre 6th Fighter Wing 40
Aviano 31st Fighter Wing 50
Netherlands Volkel 52nd Fighter Wing 10~20
Turkey Incirlik 39th Air Base Wing 60~70
Total 150~200
Source: Hans M. Kristensen (26 June 2008). “Status of U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe”.Federation of American ScientistConclusion
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