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Monday, May 2, 2016

Establishment Republicans lose either way

Once again, the base of the Republican Party has rebelled against the Establishment.

Establishment Republicans lose either way



The established Republican Party leadership is more interested in preserving the Party than adhering to principles. So their overriding strategy is to simply keep their leadership in place, rather than lead it in a specific direction. As entrenched bureaucracies go, their goal becomes maintaining power for power’s sake. Thus their disconnect with the Republican base.
The last time the Establishment Republicans faced such an overwhelming challenge was when Reagan opposed and then in 1980 defeated them by winning the Republican nomination for President.
After the failure of the Nixon administration and the ill-fated attempt at resurrecting the Party by moderates with his surrogate Gerald Ford, the Republican Party went through a major restructuring, led by supporters of Ronald Reagan. Nationwide, on a local level, long-standing leadership was replaced by leadership that was more faithful to conservative values than to retaining the traditional leadership.
Nixon had resigned in disgrace in 1974, resulting in the Republican Party losing the trust of its base. But over the next seven years, a newly invigorated base had arisen, fueled by Reagan conservatism. The result was the first conservative since Calvin Coolidge being elected President, then re-elected in one of the biggest landslide elections in history. The base of the party had rebelled, becoming staunchly conservative in the process, and took over the party.
That didn’t mean that the liberal wing gave up. And the current presidential election cycle is proof of that. With the rise of the Tea Party movement being focused within the Republican Party, the liberal wing resisted it and became the force dedicated to preserving an entrenched bureaucracy rather than fighting for the issues of the day.
Once again, the base of the Republican Party has rebelled against the Establishment. Two elections with Establishment Republican candidates running as moderates secured the ascendance of that rebellion as it led to the two-time election of the most radical leftist President in history.
As a result, the base united in their determination that the Party leadership’s chosen candidate would not be this year’s Republican nominee. But the Establishment continued their pursuit of a moderate Republican for President, putting their hopes in another Bush.
And while conservatives and the Tea Party movement made major inroads into the House and Senate in the non-presidential election years of 2010 and 2014, it wasn’t enough to overturn the Establishment leadership in either of them, so the support of the Republican base for the Tea Party movement and conservatism began to wane.
The base rebelled, rejecting the moderates predictable choice, Jeb Bush, and many rallied around Donald Trump. But Reaganite conservatives, rejecting his authoritarian approach to government, and doubting the sincerity of his social conservative positions, held on, as a principled conservative, Ted Cruz stayed in the contest due to a strong grass-roots based campaign.
And while the glitter of the Trump campaign is not fading, a win for Cruz in the Indiana primary will practically secure the Republican nomination going at least into a second ballot during the convention.






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