The Trump Phenomenon

I would like to suggest to the rest of the candidates that, maybe, just maybe, the time is ripe for you all to start cloning whatever it is that Mr. Trump is doing right, and kid yourselves not, he is doing something right

The Trump Phenomenon




As much as many of us may have missed it, there is, as far as I am concerned, a true nonpareil phenomenon taking place right before our very eyes in this running for the republican presidential candidacy deal, and I am not referring specifically to the uniquely crowded field of contenders, now in the hunt for the nomination.  That too, of course.  With 2 down and 15 to go, as of this date, I venture to say, this has to be one of the most contested races in politics as of late, bar none.  The fact that we have such a hefty fraternity of candidates running is truly a blessing in disguise for the GOP party.

But, moreover, more so than the quantity itself, the true blessing, unlike our democratic opponents, comes by way of the self-evident human capital now participating in the race; the unabated excellence found in the people that are running for the post– a true assemblage of smart, talented, skilled, and professional men and women, who have come together to let the world decide who will be the next candidate to represent the republican caucus in the 2016 presidential elections, which brings me to today’s central theme of dissertation -‘The Donald Trump Phenomenon’.

Permit me, if you will, to explain exactly what I mean.  As a professed aficionado of statistics, I embarked on a routine appraisal of the latest opinion polls regarding our republican race for the presidential candidacy.  As it pertains to politics, opinion polls are defined as surveys that are extrapolated from a sample universe, over which predictions are made as to the universes’ behaviors, political or otherwise.  We refer to pollsters, as all those, whose primary job is that of conducting opinion polls, making polling all but an exact science, albeit, the fact that there are still, always will be, inherent margins of errors to all forecasting activities.

By the same token, just as factual and accurate as the poll results may be, just as true, the fact that our techno-revolution which took place over the past century, offers today’s forecasters with added-value advantages brought about by renewed technologies, techniques and applied know-hows, all of which contributed to narrowing the aforementioned margins of errors.  More often than not, polls, in today’s political landscape are vested with remarkable accuracy of their predictions, giving man, for the first time ever the ability to forecast and predict events, in ways like never before possible.

Having said that but with the caveat that I still regard polls as an inexact science, I was given to the task of reviewing the polling of the republican presidential race over the past two months, notably, where Donald Trump has continued to show a clear path of leadership, with margins above and beyond the reach of his closest opponents. My unscientific research quickly revealed that there have been 51 polls conducted between Tuesday, August 4th, and Thursday, September 17th.  Of which, Mr. Trump has led 49 times, with a high of 40% in a New Hampshire poll and a low of 17% in Iowa – both key polling states in the election process.

Of the 49 times that Mr. Trump led in the polls, 17 times, he did so by a margin of 30% or more;  28 times his lead was between 20%  and 30% and only 4 times did his lead fall to less than 20%.  Most polling entities in my research included renown pollsters such as CBS News, The New York Times, ABC, The Washington Post, The Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus, Gravis Marketing, Quinnipiac, CNN, NBC, PPP (D), to mention a few.  Now, folks, I have tell you, even for the most skeptical amongst us, I think that winning 49 out 51 polls while leading by 30% in 17 of the 49 winning polls, is, by all accounts,  a remarkable feat at that.  The question being - What is it about this Donald Trump?

I mean, we are not talking here folks, just the fact that this man has been the undisputable leader of the race so far.  We are actually talking a lot more than that. We are talking about a true phenomenon - we are talking about a blockbuster sweep in a contest where the rest of the contenders are not precisely a group of middling, feeble-minded, run-of-the mill losers.  We are talking about a race with uniquely qualified nominees; a race where the combined talents of the rest of the field, would be enough, I should say, to make this a much, much closer race than it has been so far.  So…what is it?  What is it, really, about this Donald Trump, other than the fact that he is a successful billionaire businessman?

Well, let me try and attempt to dissect the answers to some of these puzzling questions as the nation is now faced with the cumbersome task of choosing our presidential nominee for the republican party - a magnanimous undertaking considering the ever present dangers posed at this crucial time in the geopolitical history of the nation – one where, I am sorry to say, there is absolutely no room for error whatsoever, none.  So, I think it behooves us all to take this matter of picking the republican presidential candidate, with all the sovereignty, sober-mindedness and seriousness it deserves, as again, there is no room for error – any mistakes on our part, the voters, may as well have an apocalyptic baneful outcome for mankind, I assure you - I make this claim with absolutely no hyperbolic overtones to the assumption, but with a true conviction of my beliefs – as I think it is that bad all over.

As I go about the business of dissecting the answers it may surprise you to learn that, from my humble perspective, not all of these [answers] may end-up having anything to do, whatsoever, with what you or I could expect to be discerningly rational or conventional.  But, then again, I cannot think of anything that pertains to Donald Trump which may, for that matter, be construed to be orthodox or punctilious in any way, shape or form.

The very first thing that really caught my eye with this Trump deal is the fact that from the very beginnings of the race, everyone, all the experts, the media, the forecasters, the political analysts and just about everyone, to this day, continues to think that it is just a matter of time before Mr. Trump begins to slide on the polls.  Haven’t you noticed?  Everyone seems to be anxiously awaiting for “the fall” - one that never seems to come, does it? Matter of fact, there have been times in the campaign trail when Mr. Trump’s statements were sanctioned by many as ‘politically incorrect’ leading people to believe it could be the end for Mr. Trump –an end that never was.

Just think of the time when Mr. Trump questioned Senator John McCain’s war heroism in the Vietnam War – an issue which sparkled all kinds of outrage from people of both parties.  And what about his comment regarding Carly Fiorina’s face?  Or, what about Mr. Trump’s stand on the first debate regarding his possible unwillingness to back-up the party’s eventual nominee – unless, of course, it was him?  I seem to remember that in each of these occurrences, the general consensus had it that, “this was it”, but it never was, was it?  Why?

Well, I am afraid, the answers to these and many other questions regarding Mr. Trump, begin pointing to issues which, have more to do with the polling universe, more so than the candidate himself. But, before we delve into the universe itself, let’s digress a little more on Mr. Trump, beginning, of course, with the fact that this is a truly a unique individual, no two ways about it. For starters, like I said earlier, the man is a billionaire and not many of us, I am afraid, can actually claim to be billionaires, can we? So, that, in and of itself, sets the man apart in a category enjoyed by a select few in the country – a very select minority if you will.

Other than the fact that he is a billionaire and a successful businessman, the man is also matchless in many other ways.  Among them, I personally think of Mr. Trump as somewhat of a marketing genius – a super-salesman.  Not only that, but he is a vainglorious braggadocio - arrogant, haughty, big-headed and presumptuous – all of which could probably be thought of, as simply undesirable traits – certainly unfit for a presidential contender, but not Donald Trump.  The man’s popularity, according to the polls, in spite of these unsavory qualities, it seems, continues to challenge our conventional wisdoms.

Honestly, I think that Mr. Trump’s success, so far, has less to do with the man himself and more to do with the voters’ mindset in the way that he is perceived by many people in the country.  Consider this, if you will.  Notwithstanding all of Mr. Trumps accolades and his evident personal successes, he appears to be, for the most part, unfamiliar with many of the key issues now facing the next president of the U.S., especially when it comes to, as pointed out by contender senator Marco Rubio, issues dealing with foreign affairs and international politics.  At times, Mr. Trump seems to come across as rhetorically bombastic – somewhat unrealistic, maybe?  The problem is, however, that Trump’s improbable solutions to some of the issues resonate, more so than we care to give him credit for, with the average man and woman in the nation, regardless of the accuracy with which Mr. Trump’s statements are conveyed.  The question, again, is still, why?

While there are not, not to the best of my knowledge anyways, any simple answers as to why this phenomenon of people rooting for a man who is clearly not too familiar with some of the issues, there are still answers which seem to give us the clue as to the man’s popularity, albeit, answers which, again, seem to depart from conventional wisdoms, if you will.  To begin with, I have to assume that our polling sample is, for the most part, composed of people that are completely unfamiliar with the issues themselves, as a great majority of grassroots Americans today are afflicted by an endemic epidemic of apathy, boredom and disinterest in everything or anything that deals with politics.  Mind you, most of them with good reasons for it, as for many years now, the nation has had to deal with a corrupt establishment, to where most people are totally fed-up with politics and politicians; with both republicans and democrats as well.

People have just about had it.  For one, people no longer care about “[the] issues” facing the nation as such.  I will make you a bet that most folks in the country nowadays don’t know or care to know who Benjamin Netanyahu, Bashar al-Assad or Raul Castro are. People don’t know where Iran is located in the global map, nor what the recent nuclear treaty was all about. Furthermore, people don’t care for the U.S. to send boots to the mountains of Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan or Syria.  To some, I bet, ISIS is the name of their next-door neighbor. These are the same people who probably think that Cuba is one of the Hawaiian Islands – well, anyway, you get the message,

So, let’s be honest and real here, to most people in this twenty-first century voting universe, politics is a forbidden science of sorts– one that should be left to the more scholarly amongst us. That being the case, what people are really looking for in the candidates nowadays, as well as you may not like it, is for trivial and unencumbered issues. What people are looking for in the candidates are really for inconsequential matters such as looks, appearance, public appeal, speaking affluence, mannerisms or otherwise, non-issues and/or issues which are not necessarily consequential to electing the next president, but…it is what it is.  Sad, but true.

In line, again, with most peoples’ injurious feelings towards politics and politicians, is the fact that Mr. Trump, just as Carli Fiorina and Ben Carson happen to be ‘outsiders’ – giving these three a free-pass to the peoples’ hearts and minds.  The fact that these three candidates come from lands outside of D.C., and have not been an integral part of the establishment, gives all of them, Mr. Trump included, yet another lift in popularity.

So, there you have it folks.  It is not as mysterious as we all may have thought it was.  Mr. Trump’s success comes by way of a combination of factors, all of which are relative to the mindsets of the electorate.  All that Mr. Trump has done, really, has been to wisely hear the peoples’ clamor for straightforwardness and a spontaneous outcry for simplicity.  And all that Mr. Trump has done, as well as he did at a private level in his life, has been to, merely, tell people what they want to hear. He has done so using an authoritarian and commanding aura of haughtiness and autocracy – one which presupposes an innate ability to lead and give orders, as would a sergeant in the barracks of any military base in the nation, while many in the voting universe are still begging to be led.

But…wait a minute.  Isn’t this what we call demagoguery – the practice that makes use of popular prejudices and false claims and promises in order to gain power?  Is this not the common ailment afflicting virtually everyone who calls himself or herself a politician?  Is it not true that Mr. Trump’s immense popularity is one that draws its ‘mojo’ from being radically different than everyone else in the establishment? So what about Trump’s masterful use of demagoguery in this campaign.  You figure it out, as come the day of reckoning,  a great majority of voters will still be figuring out what is going on, hopelessly waiting for Trump’s fall – one which, according to the polls, may never come to fruition at all.

I, personally, do not think that Mr. Trump is the right man for the job.  I do not like men who boasts in swaggering self-aggrandizing ways.  It brings back memories of Barack Obama’s anointment, if yet, both Obama and Trump, each with their own flair of sumptuousness seem to think they can just do whatever they feel like doing, without any accountability to Congress and/or the Constitution of the United States – a perilous and treacherous presumption, which, frankly, we should all stay away from at whatever costs, regardless.

As recently as this morning, polls began to indicate a surge of the other two GOP ‘outsiders’, Fiorina and Carson.  I will not, however, under any circumstance, whatsoever, fall for the trap that many have in their wishful hopes for a Trump slump.  Matter of fact, I am at a stage of this game, ready, willing and able to support Mr. Trump’s nomination or, for that matter, any other candidate who we nominate as I am firmly convinced that whomever that choice is, it will always be a much preferred alternative than that of having another democrat as our next president.  No “ifs” or “buts” about it.  In the meantime, I will suggest to the rest of the candidates, if they truly want to make a run for the nomination, they should all go ahead and take some notes from Mr. Trump’s campaign strategies.  For any of them to beat Mr. Trump, they must, unquestionably revamp the blueprint of their strategies, maybe by reaching out to try and emulate the best of each other.  To me, that “best” would be a combination of factual and detailed discussions of the real issues now facing the nation, all to be mindfully conveyed in laymen’s terms, so that we all can, even the most unworldly amongst us, be challenged, once again, to returning our interests to our nation’s goodwill and future wellbeing.

There are still, you would figure, many attributes appurtenant to candidate Trump, such as those which made him the successful person he has been throughout the years.  While it is true that he might not be exactly [the] supreme candidate that most of us are looking to becoming the next president of the United States, we should all still praise Mr. Trump for all that he has been able to accomplish in the polls thus far. To that end, whether you love or hate candidate Trump, he is still worthy of our respect for all that he has achieved in this race, including but not limited to the immense T.V. audiences that have been attracted to watching the debates as a unique spectacle that combines politics with entertainment – to where Donald Trump himself was at center-stage of that entertainment.

In closing, I would like to suggest to the rest of the candidates that, maybe, just maybe, the time is ripe for you all to start cloning whatever it is that Mr. Trump is doing right, and kid yourselves not, he is doing something right - so right, in fact, that we may all be unwittingly surprised on the man’s chances of becoming [the] next nominee of the republican party for the presidency of the United States of America, such as what the polls have been suggesting all along, while we all continue to look for Mr. Trumps’ ultimate fall- again, one which may never come around.


Obie Usategui

Pro Deo et Constitutione – Libertas aut Mors
Semper Vigilans Fortis Paratus et Fidelis
Joseph F Barber- http://josephfreedomoranarchy.blogspot.com/


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