Year's End Analysis of Operations in Syria

Year's End Analysis of Operations in Syria

 

"The direct intervention of Russia into the Syrian Civil War has shifted battlefield momentum in favor of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad since ISW published its last Control of Terrain in Syria Map in mid-September. Russia began its air campaign in Syria on September 30, enabling the regime to mount renewed offensives against opposition-held terrain throughout Western Syria. In Aleppo Province, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and associated proxy forces launched a multipronged offensive on October 15 that has seized large swaths of rebel-held terrain in the southern countryside of Aleppo City, threatening to sever the strategic M5 Highway. Meanwhile, pro-regime forces relieved the besieged Kuweires Airbase in Eastern Aleppo Province on November 10 in a key symbolic victory that positioned the regime to exploit future U.S.-led coalition operations against ISIS along the Syrian-Turkish border. The regime also achieved tactical gains against the opposition in Northeastern Latakia Province and parts of Northern Hama Province as well as the Eastern Ghouta suburbs of Damascus.

 

The regime nonetheless suffers from chronic shortages of manpower that render it unable to fully capitalize upon the expanded support provided by Russia and Iran. Rebel factions seized the town of Morek in Northern Hama Province on November 5, securing a strategic position directly north of Hama City. Regime forces have also struggled to repel repeated incursions by ISIS into Central Syria despite the presence of Russian airpower. ISIS temporarily severed the vulnerable regime ground line of communication to Aleppo City in October, disrupting ongoing operations in Southern Aleppo Province. ISIS also engaged in back-and-forth battles over the town of Mahin in the Eastern Qalamoun Mountains over the past two months, threatening to disrupt the M5 Highway between Damascus and Homs City. ISIS currently retains its position in Mahin despite the deployment of Russian helicopter gunships to the region."  ISW

 

http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/control-terrain-syria-december-23-2015

 

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This will not be greeted as a Christmas card by the Obama administration.  The only worrisome thing in this analysis from the POV of the previous opinion of the course of the war here at SST is the business of the supposed "chronic shortage of manpower."  If this analysis is valid then I expect that we will see the direct intervention of Russian ground forces in the next months.  the instances of gains by the rebels that are cited were all passing events that were quickly reversed.  Russia continues to focused on achieving a negotiating position that excludes all jihadi groups from the talks.  I continue to think that in the near future we will see a sudden collapse of rebel activity in NW Syria.  pl  

Colonel W. Patrick Lang is a retired senior officer of U.S. Military Intelligence and U.S. Army Special Forces (The Green Berets). He served in the Department of Defense both as a serving officer and then as a member of the Defense Senior Executive Service for many years. He is a highly decorated veteran of several of America’s overseas conflicts including the war in Vietnam.

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2015/12/the-direct-intervention-of-russia-into-the-syrian-civil-war-has-shifted-battlefield-momentum-in-favor-of-syrian-president-bas.html

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